Odds On Racing - Harness Racing

A Closer Look At The 2005 Kentucky Derby

May 7, 2005

ONLY Fusiachi Pegasus---among all the 2005 Derby Sires---has TWO entered-and both are from his first crop. Andromeda Hero and Bandini. Fusiachi Pegasus is the lowest priced winner of the Derby (2-1) in the last quarter century.

EACH of the past two Derbies has gone to a rookie trainer---Barclay Tagg (Funny Cide) and John Servis (Smarty Jones). EVERY horse who won the Derby from 1992-1999 came in off a loss. This year, 13 of the 20 come in having lost their last race. Only three of the 20 have had the same jockey for every career start: Giacomo---Mike Smith (7 starts), Ramon Dominguez---High Limit (4 starts), John McKee---Greater Good (8 starts).

Spanish Chestnut is the ONLY starter NOT to have gotten a check in his last start (6th).
Two of the 20 starters are 2005 maidens: Wilco 0-2 and Giacomo 0-3. Giacomo will be leaving California for the very first time in his career in this race.

18 of the 20 starteres race on lasix----the two who don't are Spanish Chestnut and Don't Get Mad.

Bellamy Road's $74.40 daily double price with the Jerry Bailey-ridden Oaks winner is the lowest DD probable. Don't Get Mad is the only horse whose last race was at Churchill Downs. Going Wild has been beaten 57 and 1/4 lengths in his last two starts. Five other horses come into this years Derby also having lost their last two starts. The combined margin for all five of them for their two defeats is 56 lengths. Afleet Alex-$1,315,800 sports the highest bankroll, $190,112 for Dont Get Mad, the lowest.

Bellamy Road has AVERAGED over 11 lengths per win---4 wins 46 and 1/2 lengths, average of over 11 and 1/2 lengths per start. Bellamy Road has post 16: Monarchos-2001 and Charismatic-1999....both won from there.

No Pat Day for the first time in the Kentucky Derby since 1983.

Bobby Frankel and Todd Pletcher are looking for their first Derby wins today.

#1 post is the all-time winningest post in the Derby---but hasn't won since 1986---Ferdinand......and, has only won once in the last 40 editions!! 14 of the past 25 Derby winners---or all since 1980---have won from post 10 on out. The first ten post positions for the 2005 Derby are ALL 10-1 or higher.

Nine chestnuts in the field---another Secretariat in here? Secretariat's 1:59.2 in the 1973 Derby ($5.00 to win-the LAST time he would ever be over even $$) was the first mile ever, by any age horse, under 2 minutes for the mile and a quarter.

In the decade of the 1990s, seven of the 10 Derbys were split between three trainers-Lukas-Baffert & Zito-all three of which are in this year too. Two trainers will send out 40% of the field-Pletcher (3) and Zito (5).

No Derby winner has won with a layoff of more than 35 days since 1956, when Needles won it. Noble Causeway and High Fly, the top two finishers in the Florida Derby both last raced 35 days ago on April 2.

Three of the last five Derby winners raced in the Wood Memorial. There've only been six wire-to-wire winners in the Derby since 1948.

Warren Stute---trainer of Greeleys Galaxy---got his trainers license before World War II, in 1940. 1882 was the last time a Derby winner won without racing as a freshman---Apollo. Greeleys Galaxy is the only unraced two-year-old in the Derby field.

No favorite won the Kentucky Derby in the 1980s or the 1990s. There's been at least one scratch in each of the past three years. Three of the last four Derby winners were over 10-1. The average field size in the Derby since 1980?? 17 horses. The average win price in the Derby since 1980? $22!