Odds On Racing - Harness Racing

An Overview on Winter Racing Theories

In our last installment we examined several handicapping theories that pertain to winter racing. In this article I would like to render my opinions as to the value each one has to improving handicapping during the winter months.

As for theory #1, I agree that added consideration should be given to horses that either raced on the lead or raced uncovered on the outside in their last race. It should be fairly obvious that these circumstances provide legitimate excuses for poor performances in harsh weather conditions and, furthermore, the faster the fractions, the greater the excuse. Also, any horse that was able to finish well under these conditions deserves even more credit when assessing past performance.

With regards to theory #2, I don't find any evidence that geldings, by virtue of their lack of hormones, handle cold weather better than horses or mares. Generally speaking, geldings tend to be a bit more consistent, regardless of weather. With this in mind, the advantage that geldings seem to have in cold weather has no more importance than the advantage they have in any other type of weather because their consistency is generally uniform under all conditions. In addition, I seriously doubt they are any less sensitive to extreme cold than are their male and female counterparts.

Theory #3 is another that, on the face, seems to be true but under closer examination a different reason becomes evident. While a great deal of down-under imports demonstrate an exceptional ability to race well in cold weather, the reality is that they enjoy similar success in all weather conditions. They tend to be classy and consistent performers, as a rule, and no real connection can be made between their winter success and their bloodlines. The notion that the cold weather success of imports is due to some sort of "climatic memory" is, frankly, ridiculous. Once acclimated to our weather, down-under imports react to the conditions the same as their American counterparts.

The fourth theory deals with the concept that some horses can actually benefit from cold weather. While I feel certain that this is the case, a problem arises when this knowledge is attempted to be put to use in handicapping. While a trainer may be able to tell when a horse benefits from the cold, it is not so easy for a handicapper to ascertain when this is this case. The best way to make use of this is to keep notes and try to identify those horses that improved because of the cold.

Article: Written by and permission to reprint granted by Don Beilak.