Odds On Racing - Harness Racing

Reliance on Warmups A Double Edged Sword

An inquiry by a racing fan has prompted me to review a nearly forgotten segment of my handicapping portfolio - warmup assessment. Some longtime race goers rely on warmups as an indicator of performance while others hold warmup assessment in much lower regard.

Although I am in general agreement with the latter group, I am willing to admit that some handicappers are able to develop a certain "knack" for clocking the warmups. Overall, warmup assessment must be viewed as a double edged sword, benefiting some but hindering the prospects of others.

One of the biggest drawbacks of warmup assessment is the definition of what constitutes a "good warmup". Even those who rely on warmups for guidance have trouble agreeing on a definitive procedure for rating them. Although it is normally focused on speed, a favorable assessment in always the product of a subjective process, so, a good warmup is in the eye of the beholder.

A major problem arises from this. The problem is that warmup assessment is difficult to learn because there are as many different ways to rate warmups as there are people rating them. Virtually the only way to develop the ability to successfully utilize warmups is by a trial and error approach, finding out what works for you. Although for some this will pay dividends, for most it will not. After many years at the racetrack, I know of only a few handicappers who have been able to develop the "knack" I described earlier, and all of them have varying approaches to rating warmups.

In light of this information, it is easy to understand why reliance on warmups for selections is a risky proposition. However, some handicappers my be able to benefit by using warmups as part of their overall handicapping process. With this in mind, I can offer the following recommendations for rating the warmups.

Get to the track at least one hour before first post. The final and most important warmup occurs about an hour before race time, so if you intend to clock warmups, you must be at the track early.
Get acquainted with the warmup colors of the saddlecloths so you will be able to identify each horse. There will be many horses warming up at the same time, so proper identification can be difficult if you are not careful.
Have a program and a pen ready to take notes. It's hard to remember which horses deserved added consideration for an impressive warmup, so mark your program accordingly.
Get to know the warmup habits of as many horses as possible. This means becoming familiar with horses that normally have fast warmups and those that do not. Horses are creatures of habit and many will go through fast warmups then disappoint at race time, especially speed horses with a tendency to weaken. Knowledge of these inclinations will help you separate the pretenders from the contenders.
Put the most importance on the final warmup about one hour before post time. This is the time that any advantage from observation will be gained.
Be wary of horses that blaze the final warmup. Unless they are classy types that will be racing extremely fast, horses can leave their race on the track with an overly fast warmup. This judgment between a sharp warmup and one that is overly fast can only come with much experience.
Don't try to be a veterinarian. Too many fans are quick to eliminate horses that appear "gimpy" or "have a hitch in their gait". A good number of horses will exhibit symptoms of unsoundness at jogging or warmup speed but will race just fine when they leave the gate. Besides, there is a track vet whose job it is to prevent unsound horses from racing so it is best to leave that determination to her.

Article: Written by and permission to reprint granted by Don Beilak.