Odds On Racing - Harness Racing

More Handicapping Basics

Understanding harness racing means, in part, understanding the art of picking winners, or handicapping.

Following, you will find out how handicappers make their selections. This is by no means a complete outline of the many facets of the art, but it presents you with the keys to making your picks.

Your past performance program has all the information you need to know about the horses that are racing: where they raced, their times, who drove them, and how they finished. At first, you might be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of information contained in the program, but once you know how to read it, it's a snap.

Open the program and find the page (inside the back cover of Hazel Park's live program) that explains "How to Read the Program". You'll soon see that all the numbers and symbols are easy to understand and make quite a bit of sense. Most programs have a listing of top drivers, leading trainers, and winning post positions. We'll touch on these as we go along.

Handicapping need not be a long and involved process. We'll give you the basics, and you take it from there. Before long, you'll be able to select your fair share of winners. And that, as much as anything, is a big part of enjoying your trip to the track.

Class
Harness horses tend to race against other horses of comparable ability, and it's the job of the race secretary to design races that will bring together well-matched and competitive fields.

Race types fall into various "classes," such as: conditioned races (grouping done by a horses earnings and other factors); claiming races (grouping done by estimated value of the horse), or "feature" events (Open, Invitationals, Stakes, etc.).

The best way to judge whether a horse is moving "up" or "down" in class is to compare the purse of the race in question with tonight's purse. Within a given track's class structure, the purse is often a useful barometer; however, comparing purses from one track to another is a less reliable guide.

Horses dropping in class are generally a good bet-if they meet other handicapping criteria. An edge in class is worth one or two handicapping points, as horses dropping in class are meeting softer competition tonight.

Horses moving up, however, may still rate consideration, if they have been winning impressively or posting fast times while facing horses in a lower class. Younger horses who have made only a few starts also may move up in class readily, as their true class might not yet be established.

Form
Like any other athlete, a harness horse's performances crosses peaks and valleys, but most every race winner has shown that he's been racing at or near top "form".

In the most recent races listed for each horse in tonight's program, the running positions (where the horse was in a race: 1st, 6th, etc.) are the indicators of form. Horses tend to fall into two broad categories: those that race on or near the lead and those that race farther back and come on strongly at the finish.

Front-running horses displaying good form show that they can hold the lead all the way, while the latter type horses show come-from-behind rushes to either win or just miss.

Changes in form can be spotted by comparing race lines week to week. Once a front-runner's past performance lines start to show he can't hold the lead all the way, he's going "off form". But when each line shows he's getting closer to going "wire-to-wire", he's coming back into form... and is worth a bet.

Sometimes, though, what appears to be a downward swing in form may not be that at all. A dull-appearing performanace may be the result of an "off" track (sloppy, muddy, etc.), interference, show fractional times, or simply of having raced against horses of superior class.

Horses must also race frequently to keep their form, and they compete on an average of every six to ten days. Long layoffs are almost always a bad sign.

Time
An important handicapping concept to understand is that the final time posted by a horse is not as important as his individual quarter-miles times.

For example, "Able Almahurst" may race in a trailing position in a fast-paced race and merely finish in an average time but record a fast victory due to the fast early pace. "Baker Hanover," meanwhile, may trail far behind a slow pace and finish very rapidly but not gain much ground during a fast final quarter. Yet..."Baker" may well be sharper than "Able!"

A horse that "does work" (races on the lead or outside in a challenging position, or closes strongly) in a fast quarter should get extra points in handicapping.

Although fractional times are more important than final time, it is a fact that some horses are just faster than others. It is important to check how fast the horses have been clocked in recent races, although the swiftest ones, and ones who are merely "sucked along" (stayed behind other horses in the pack), are often overbet by the public.

Driver
There is a listing in most programs, showing the leading drivers at the track. They may be listed by the Universal Driver Rating (a weighted average which parallels a baseball player's batting average, whigh .300 considred "driving" very well), or by the total number of wins.

The most useful piece of information in the driver statistics is driver winning percentage. The drivers who can "get 'em home first" at the highest rate should merit extra handicapping points. A horse that receives a switch from an unranked driver to a top-rate pilot should get further handicapping points.

Often, thought, the top drivers are bet heavily by the public, resulting in odds lower than what the horse's chances might truly warrant.

Also, drivers not listed among the leaders may still qualify as a possible bet if the horse passes other handicapping tests, AND the unranked driver has driven the horse successfully in the past.

Top trainers, listed in Hazel Park's live program, usually have their horses in peak condition and ready to win. As with drivers, isolate the trainers who have a high win percentage. A horse "claimed" in his last start (the "c" or "z" after the claiming price shows a claim) and moving into a top trainer's care may show dramatic improvement for his new stable.

Post
Generally speaking, the inside post positions (numbers one through four) have an advantage, especially one half-mile tracks. Horses who do not have good post position risk the possiblity of being "parked out" (marked by the "o" symbol in the program) and losing considerable ground while racing on the turns.

The inside post position bias is most pronounced on half-mile tracks, where there is a short distance between the start and the first turn. The bias still exists on five-eights-mile and mile tracks, but to a lesser extent. Most programs list the number of winners coming from each post position, making the job of evaluating post positions easy.

It's also important to check the racing style of a horse and figure out his likely racing position throughout the mile. If there are many horses whose past performance shows early speed in a race, they may wear themselves out fighting among themselves, and a fast-finishing horse may catch them before the wire.

Similarly, a good come-from-behind horse from a bad post position may find other fast finishers in a better position than he is in when he starts to make his move. That horse may not be able to make up enough ground on his rivals to win.

Finally, a horse who raced either spectacularly or poorly from a bad post position last week may have a better chance of winning from an inside starting slot tonight.

Bets
The object of handicpaping and betting is to win money. That's not necessarily the same as picking many winners- some lower-priced favorites are losers in the long run. Four $4 winners in ten bets will return $16 total, if you bet $2 each time. One $20 winner out of 10 races, however, will put you at the break-even level in a single shot.

But favorites are favorites for good reasons- they win, on the average, a little over one-third of all races. You can use the principles recommended in this article to sort the economic wheat from the chaff and wager on the most promising horses.

When you bet, there are a number of ways to go:

Win: Your horse must finish first

Place: Your horse must finish first or second

Show: Your horse must finish first, second or third

Daily Double: A two-race bet requiring selecting the winners of two consecutive races

Perfecta: Picking the first two finishers in a given race, in EXACT order.

Trifecta: Picking the first three finishers in a given race, in EXACT order.

Superfecta: Picking the first four finishers in a given race, in EXACT order

Article: Permission to reprint granted by http://hazelparkraceway.com.